Joy on Obama; sadness on Prop 8

Obama wins big in the all important electoral college - picking the so called lock of the Republican's "Southern Strategy". Dems have struggled hard in all elections for the presidency since the passage of civil rights sparked all the politics of resentment that have coralled a Southern erstwhile Democratic stronghold for the Republicans.

Noticably the thinking has been the need for the Dems to do something to attract the South - Carter from Georgia, Clinton Governor of Arkansas, Gore Senator from Tennesee, Edwards from North Carolina....

Not anymore. Obama a left leaning liberal, black lawyer from Chicago as well as a Veep from Delaware carrying North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri being split (SPLIT!), Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Floriday.

I am sure Obama is the right person for the job at this point and at some deep level the US and the world needed this renewal even though on one level not much is going to change - but we'll see.

Just the fact of how far we have come when we have gone from the Civil Rights fights (to vote, not have to sit on a separate part of a bus, segregation in both church and state) to a black person being elected as President. Just to see tears in so many faces - including Jesse Jackson.

On the other hand, sadness that Proposition 8 was carried by a small majority.

Many have speculated on the reasons for this failure.

I think the No campaign had serious shortcomings with poor ads. And our own community has probably been prone to some hubris - if we celebrate our victory loudly enough no-one will be so cruel as to reverse it.

Well they can. And did.

Having schoolchildren attend their school teacher's same sex wedding when school teaching, children and religion were at the core of the Yes on 8 campaign.

Gavin Newsom triumphally stating that you're going to get same sex marriage whether you like it or not; that there's no way of turning back. Voters thought otherwise.

So it was a sad day but great to see there was an opposition of 48% with so much support from trade unions, young voters, church groups. These networks should be built on and nurtured as a way of building up support for LGBT people.

I think that same sex marriage will proceed in its own way in many states of the US as well as other countries in the world (the latest being the statement that Sweden's centre right government is likely to introduce same sex marriage legislation by 2009).

All is not so negative. Connecticut having recently commenced same sex marriage in a similar court ruling and voted against calling a Constitutional Convention and the Dems got majorities in many state legislatures.

Progress marches on, though sometimes via a winding road.

The US election

Apart from a clear ideological preference for the Democrats, Obama is quite clearly the better candidate - calm, cool, not a hothead or erratic, a strategist rather than a tactician and a powerful orator.

He is quite clearly what the US and the world needs from this election.

He would also be (so far as I can tell) the first country in the developed world to elect a leader from a minority ethnic grouping, which given the US' troubled history with slavery, segregation and discrimination is important - again not just for the US but for the world.

It appears there has been some tightening in some states such as Pensylvania but if Obama doesn't win it will be the most incredible electoral upset (either that or the 'voting machines' are churning out Republican voting surpluses).

Either way, not long to wait now.

Sarah Palin murders the English language

There are two theories here.

One is that she isn't verbally articulate in that her command of vocabulary and expression (fluent use of English constructions) and can't construct moderately complex sentences 'on the hoof'. She just isn't good at speaking.

The other theory is that she can't express herself because she hasn't gained the content to talk fluently about.

She has been a good debater in past campaigns in Alaska - she just hasn't grappled with the complexities of policy.

The reason can be seen in videos of her church. She's a born again Christian with certainty and faith. She doesn't need to know about things because she prays and reads the Bible and has God behind her.

So I think her extreme lack of fluency is because she's having to come to terms with policy issues she's never thought about before, while trying consciously to make sure that she doesn't contradict McCain (she probably doesn't known the full suite of his policy positions and their evolution and context).

The upshpot is she isn't ready and that her extreme faith based politics are a significant hurdle to learning.

Obama's gay campaign

This on the Obama campaign's efforts to involve LGBT people, including previous supporters of Hillary.

The dream ends

Clinton finally ended her campaign yesterday though I didn't manage to watch the speech. Here is a collection of some nice clips. As can be seen, she gave a thorough and full endorsement of Barack Obwma.

Whilst I didn't take to some of the tactics used by Clinton in her campaign (and Bill in particular has not come out of the campaign with his reputation enhanced) I have to admire Hilary Clinton's tenacity and energy in campaigning.

I am sure she'll carve out a powerful role for herself but I think that Hilary as VP is a recipe for disaster at some future point.

When the two candidates are so evenly matched it would be confusing as to which one felt more entitled to be President so you can imagine all sorts of difficulties - recent experience in the UK is perhaps not so good in this respect.

Some reflections on last night

I think it is really important to pause and reflect on the sheer history we saw last night in Bareack Obama becoming the first black nominee of a major party in the US presidential election, and yes that he was nearly beat by the first woman nominee.

How many times has it been said it would take the US 100 years to be 'ready' for a woman or a black President?

Whatever else it has achieved in it's existence the Democratic Party has, through this contest, put both of these within grasp.

So politics is still a noble endeavour, party politics (too often maligned) specifically.

Remarkable for any country to candidate of a minority ethnic group as a contender for high office, whereas in the US the Civil Rights movement is still in living memory for many.

I can only borrow this from Andrew Sullivan's blog:

My grandfather, 86 years old and a veteran of WWII, just gave me a call. He
was calling all of his grandchildren to let them know what an important night
this was in the history of our country.

Grandpa drove a truck for over 50 years, and he told the story of how he drove with a team of drivers, 2 white (including him), and 4 black. When they stopped at the truck stops, the black drivers had to use seperate restrooms and showers, and had to eat in a small room in the back of the kitchen. Grandpa and his co-driver would eat in the back with the rest of the team, and while they didn't speak of it at the time, they
knew it was wrong yet felt powerless to change it, and believed that it would never change.

Tonight, he told me, we have come full-circle. Many people, especially the younger generation who supported Obama, will never fully realize the historical import of what happened tonight. But he wanted his grandchildren to know this story that he had never told us, and it was the second time in my 33 years that I have heard my grandpa cry.

Obama's speech showed the same deep oratorical gifts that Obama has always showed. His ability to move the audience, move with the audience, create common purpose with them. He looked every bit a President and compared very favourably to the two other speeches, both of which were rather pedestrian in nature.

Of course, oratory alone (oratory is the thing that is decried when present but bemoaned when absent - in Obama we have a foremost modern orator that lives up to the highest ideals of the art) won't work and the hard graft of a General Election that leaves the contestation of the Primaries behind.

On the other hand I now have a more negative view of Hilary Clinton's speech - also some reactions here. I don't think she managed the required tone and her speech doesn't stand muster in the cold light of day. Seem to remember John Major saying something along the lines of "When the curtain falls, you leave the stage...").

I think the chances of being a VP were always slim but probably a generous concession speech was required to make it a possible. I think she's overplaying her hand and it will backfire.

In spite of all of this no-one will deny her her position as a candidate who was a candidate to the very end of the process (quite a rare occureence) . There's lots of speculation as to potential roles but some that have been mentioned include Senate Leader, Health coverage supremo and the even Supreme Court. Putting her in charge of health care reform is a very good proposal as it people to remember the chaos the last time she was put in charge of it.

To get any where near to cashing in on her achievement in this Primary she does need to concede and get behind the nominee.

But the most important thing is to pause a while and reflect on hisotry in the making that I am sure, whatever the result of the election, will have massive ramifications for the rest of the world.

Clinton wraps it up

Actually quite a good speech. A pretty good hust for VP.

"I am committed to uniting our Party"

"Where do we go from here"

"No decisions tonight"

"I will consult with our Party leaders"

Effectively concedes without conceding.

Obama goes over the top

The last Democratic Primaries (Montana and South Dakota)

SD closes 8pm ET, Mont closes 10pm (1am and 3am on whatever time we're on at the moment)

11pm

Obama close to clinching the nomination

More and more superdelegates endorsing Obama - now only 12 short of the 'magic number'

Now on 2106

Described as the most exciting and historic Primary night in US history

11.40pm

Now on 2107 - 11 more needed

11.50pm

Now on 2108 - 10 more needed

1am

Now on 2112 - 6 more needed, 200 in front of Clinton

1.04 - 2113 - 5 needed

1.10 - 2114 - 4 needed

2.30 - Obama on 2119 and is therefore now the nominee presumptive

OBAMA WINS

According to the Associated Press Barack Obama has now won the Democratic nomination and has reached the required number of delegates and makes history for the US as the first black Presidential candidate (presumptive nominee until made into the official candidate at the Convention).

Andrew Sullivan (Daily Dish) How to Celebrate

Interesting pickings from the Drudge Report

Times The Clinton juggernaut coughs and splutters to a halt, Barack Obama on the threshold of history

BBC Obama on brink of victory

Four Days in Denver

Great script for a deadlocked Convention unable to agree on a nominee. I won't spoil the ending. Makes for a great read.

(ht to Andrew Sullivan, Daily Dish)

Obama Pride

Really like the link for the LGBT supporters of Obama.

Why isn't Obama able to win everywhere?

Last night Obama inched yet further towards the nomination by sweeping ahead in (largely white let it be said Oregon).

Hilary still determined to stay in the race but surely now not thinking she will win but thinking no doubt of other things and of course keeping hope alive because you never know - it isn't over till it's over.

Why isn't Obama winning in every state?

Because both candidates have shown themselves to be very evenly matched in this contest and Hilary has shown her self to be extremely resilient (to her credit), albeit by shifting her message rather widly (less to her credit). There's no knock out blow because they're so evenly matched.

Does this mean she can still win?

Surely not. Because while the two are very evenly matched one of them has the edge - more pledged delegates, more super delegates, more small donors, ahead in the popular vote.

Hilary no doubt wants to get herself a name as a non-quitter and the party's foremost campaigner, the Dem's No2.

Clearly she has and will earn that right by the end of this process, whatever her formal role (I don't think two evenly balanced candidates should serve as each other's running mate, though evenly matched teams occasionally do very well......)

From today's Guardian They think it's all over by Michael Tomasky

But Appalachian states are not in conflict. They're red. Lots of pundits don't understand this yet. It wouldn't matter if Obama lost Kentucky by 80 points.

The only point now is how to end this thing. Clinton deserves respect. But she can't win. All that's needed is a referee who has the authority to send her to the locker room. Good luck with that, Democrats.

It's over for Hilary

Out of cash, out of delegates and out of time - I think that she's coming to the end of the road.

Looking at the two 'victory' speeches last night there was a huge difference between the two candidates.

Obama striking and confident, giving his first speech of the General Election.

Hilary with bits and bobs all over the place but with pointed references to working with the Party's nominee..... She was unsure and unsteady and toward the end looked like she was reading out the words without meaning them.

The look on Bill and Chelsea's faces was an even clearer indicator. The reaction of her crowd of supporters was also an indicator they knew the end was close at hand.

Hilary has proved herself an able and dogged fighter with far more political skills than most thought she had. It's just that Obama is as well and has the edge in the campaign in terms of popular vote and more importantly delegates.

Hilary pulling out or at the least avoiding the use of her 'kitchen sink' /scorched earth approach for the next win or two would be good for the party, allow Hilary her role as Party No2 (but not probably running mate to Obama) and maximise the chances of Obama winning now that the Party has given him the advantage.

This would also settle the problem of the seating of Florida and Michigan. If Obama is designated as the Democratic Candidate the two delegations can be seated and vote for Hilary in the proportions that voted for her in that contest (hence I think the emphasis in Hilary's speech on seating the two delegations at the Convention).

Good coverage from Andrew Sullivan in his blog "The Daily Dish"

"Hilary, the time has come" from Kevin Naff of Washington Blade, previously a Clinton supporter.

From the BBC 'Clinton heading for the exit' by John Zogby (independent pollster)

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