Why is Brown staying?

We know that he is (or at least intends to) but we don't quite know why.

The key to staying is to want to do something with the 12 months that are left. At the moment I have no sense of Brown having an ambition that is the measure of the situation. He tends to view minor tinkering as being crucial and vital reform.

Time to look to the bigger frame of history and actually do something brave with the next 12 months.

I am afraid that this does include a Bill of Rights, reform of the Lords and PR. Now or never.

News just in - Govt wins 42 days by 9 votes

After a number of concessions the Government staves off defeat and wins on 42 days.

The concessions though are quite extensive and produce a rather strange legal apparatus to deal with situations where a longer period than 28 days is required, though the alternative would be to rush through legislation on the hoof in 1 day which, on balance, means the 42 days might be the least worst solution.

Very good coverage on the Guardian blogging on developments throughout the day.

What Gordon Brown should do over the summer

Firstly, rest.

Secondly delegate to (probably) Jack Straw, possibly Miliband over a long summer holiday.

Ideally he should rent a cottage in Devon for the first part of the holiday and be seen going for lots of country walks, a couple of shots of chatting with locals but no politicking.

Then aborad where there are no voters to interact with and (hopefully) no media apart from a few syndicated photos and clips of him reading something slightly trashy (if he's seen reading an economics text book that's not good).

Where? Can't be the US or he'll get caught up in the US elections. Can't be in the EU or he'll end up talking about the Lisbon Treaty.

So preferably somewhere he can completly unwind and be photographed wearing slacks and short sleave shirts.

No where immediately springs to mind but I wonder if Cliff Richards still has that yacht in the Bahamas.

Brown plants his standard on 42 days

"I'm determined to stick to our principles."

BBC report.

Andrew Rawnsley in today's Observer

Andrew Rawnsely in today's Observer on his advice to GB. Though other commentators and Rawnsley himself has said this before.

Piece is titled Gordon's best - and only - bet now is to be bold.

Some quotes:

There is now only one potentially winning strategy left to Gordon Brown. Paradoxically, that is to start governing on the assumption that he is going to lose the next general election. He should give up trying to please everyone, not least because he is no good at pleasing anyone at the moment, and concentrate his energies on achieving a few important things that he believes in.

I heard a matching critique from a cabinet minister who is usually regarded as extremely close to Mr Brown. 'He's got to break free. He's got to throw off some of the bonds,' says this minister. 'He's got to be himself. He's got to say what he believes, act on it and fight for it.'

Take that advice and at least the Prime Minister would regain his self-respect. Over time, he may begin to win back the respect of the voters too. Governing on the basis that he's lost is now his last, best hope of winning.

Derek Draper (!) comes to Gordon's aid

In today's Guardian , Derek Draper (sometime new Labour spin doctor - though not a very good one and now some kind of psychotherapist - more of which later) gives his view that we are currently living through an exaggerated 'crowd' response to Gordon Brown's difficulties, where he is getting blamed in an exaggerated way for the international economic shocks (triple whammy of banking crisis, oil shock, food price hike - and none of the government's making).

Behind the relentless criticism lies the more balanced truth: That, sure, Brown has made mistakes but that the main source of his unpopularity is that people blame him for the economic downturn. He is hoping that he will receive reciprocal credit for any subsequent recovery. In the meantime something akin to mass hysteria has gripped the nation.

In other words the best antidote is for Brown to exhibit those characteristics he most possesses: being solid, steadfast and serious. Not flash, as the slogan put it - just Gordon. If he soldiers on I suspect that people will begin to realise that the current negativity is out of proportion and that he deserves a more balanced judgment.

At a pivotal moment in the West Wing, the administration's disastrous poll slide is arrested by the simple strategy, scrawled on a napkin by an aide, of "letting Bartlet be Bartlet". Brown's best bet is to follow the spirit of this advice. Be himself, relax, let people get to know him more with all his flaws and eccentricities, take the brickbats with good humour and wait for the tide of opinion to turn.

It makes good sense and if there is a recovery (seems the banking crisis has already settled down) then Brown's ratings are likely to recover.

I think this is only partly correct. There's something odd about the conjunction between democracy and capitalism.

Capitalist economies are like the shares that distinguish them - they go down as well as up. When running for office, parties exaggerate what's going wrong with the economy and exaggerate what they can do about it. When in power they either say they're still cleaning up the mess left by the last lot or that they're suffering under international shocks over which they have no control.

In the midst of all of this the most likely scenario is that governments take credit for successful economies and take the rap for economic difficulties (you have to be able to blame 'someone' for what's going wrong).

Correct diagnosis is of course the key and then you have to sell it persuade people of your view. It's easier if you can demonstrate our economy is doing better than everyone else's. But many people have a magical view of the economy that if there is something wrong in the economy the current government is to blame.

I think we underestimate how severe an economic shock is hitting us at the moment. Gordon's genius so far has been to avoid wild excesses (no more boom and bust) which has kept us out of recession and kept growth solid. Is this transient bumpiness or the beginning of a new economic dispensation?

Martin Kettle has some similar thoughts in today's Guardian The false rhinoceros...

But the greatest collective hypocrisy of our time remains the state of the economy. Indisputably, times are harder than they were. Undeniably, big changes in global financial power are afoot. Yes, growth is faltering, nerves are stretching and politicians are struggling to strike a persuasive note after surfing a long period of rising prosperity. But be honest: is this biting economic distress of the sort that traumatises families, communities and whole generations in the way that the convulsions of the 1930s or the 1980s did? Not yet it isn't.

When I read on yesterday's front pages that a family of four planning a summer holiday trip to the west coast of America, a place which their parents could never have dreamed of visiting, will suffer the "misery" of paying an extra £240 surcharge for the privilege, I wonder who is more deluded, the politicians or the people? And I ask myself what kind of rhinoceros we think we are looking at.

We need a new Government

I think the Labour Government is now in serious difficulty and in need of a profound overhaul.

I may be the last person in the country to catch up on this piece of stunning news but then again I am a loyal member of the Party and generally see things sunny side up.

Where's the sun now?? Are we going to have a death by a thousand concessions from now until the election?

I hope not.

The question of keeping the current leader is finely balanced but surely relates to whether the current incumbent has a dynamic vision for the country.

Now I am sure Gordon Brown does have such a vision but there has been a lot of populism and positioning and ultimately it ain't going to work.

The country is clearly tired of what Labour is offering and there is a need for renewal. Of course economic turbulence hasn't helped either but that won't cut much ice at the ballot box.

There are lots of candidates for what the Mirror today describes as 'spring cleaning' (the Guardian has its own list) that will allow the Government to be refreshed.

These include things like ID cards and 42 days detention as starters for 10.

Brown should certainly ask himself 'If I am only Prime Minister for two more years, what would I like to have achieved?'.

There are doubtless other policy changes as well and there needs to be some big things - headline grabbers if you will (housing, welfare etc) with headline grabbing politicians to front it up.

All this is doable but policy alone won't do it. We also need to shake up the team a bit (a lot).

Things like a Party Chair, a new Chancellor etc, put Miliband in somewhere prominent, appoint a Deputy Prime Minister (possibly Miliband). The thing is it needs to look like a new refreshed team.

Gordon Brown is a very thorough kind of guy so he may already be working on some such package. I certainly hope so, because a Party that keeps defenestrating its leaders doesn't do itself any favours in the long run (to lose one Prime Minister is a misfortune, to lose two looks like carelessness).